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2024 & Quick Facts

2024 & Quick Facts

May 22, 2024

Will the Fed cut interest rates in 2024?  What effect will the 2024 Presidential Election have on the U.S. Stock market?  Will we have a recession? ….

These are all great questions and unfortunately everyone probably has different answers and the market will always be volatile.  While the Fed will likely cut interest rates in the near future, the exact timing is unknown.  With recent economic data, our best guess is that it will happen towards the end of this year if they cut in 2024 at all.  Our advice and investment philosophy hasn’t changed: Stay diversified & stay the course.  Diversification should include sectors/industries, countries, size (small/medium/large capitalization), etc.  We believe a diversified global portfolio allocation balanced with your risk tolerance and time horizon has the best opportunity for success. 

Here are some quick economic facts about the U.S. Economy:

Household Debt Payments as a Percent of Disposable Income:

  • Q4 2023: 9.8%
  • Q4 2019: 9.97%

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income [TDSP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP, May 17, 2024.

Real Disposable Personal Income:

  • March 2024: $16,961.30
  • December 2019: $15,684.80

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, May 17, 2024.

Real GDP:

  • As of Q1 2024, Real GDP is up 11.5% cumulatively from Q1 2019

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1, May 17, 2024.

Inflation & CPI:

  • Cumulatively, the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) is up 21.1% since December 2019.
    • This equates to approximately a 4.52% annualized rate of inflation since the end of 2019.
  • As of April 2024, used car & truck prices are down 16.8% from their February 2022 highs.
  • CPI: All items Year-Over-Year:
    • April 2024: 3.36%
    • April 2023: 4.94%
    • April 2022: 8.25%
  • CPI: All items Excluding Shelter Year-Over-Year:
    • April 2024: 2.21%
    • April 2023: 3.41%
    • April 2022: 9.8%

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average [CPIAUCSL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL, May 17, 2024.

Unemployment:

  • Unemployment Rate:
    • April 2024: 3.9%
    • December 2019: 3.6%

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate [UNRATE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE, May 17, 2024.

  • Labor Force Participation Rate:
    • April 2024: 62.7%
    • December 2019: 63.3%

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART, May 17, 2024.

Interest Rates:

  • 10 Year Treasury Yield:
    • April 2024: 4.54%
    • December 2019: 1.86%

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed [DFII10], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10, May 17, 2024.

  • Fed Funds Effective Rate:
    • April 2024: 5.33%
    • April 2023: 4.83%
    • April 2022: 0.33%
    • April 2019: 2.42%

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Federal Funds Effective Rate [DFF], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF, May 17, 2024.

US Stock Market:

  • S&P 500:
    • 05/21/2024: 5,321.41
    • 12/31/2019: 3,234.85

Yahoo Finance, S&P 500 (^GSPC), retrieved from; https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC, May 21, 2024.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average:
    • 05/21/2024: 39872.99
    • 12/30/2019: 28,634.88

Yahoo Finance, Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), retrieved from; https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI, May 21, 2024.

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A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.